Power Grid Corporation of India Ltd., manages around 20GW power on a legacy grid. Its IPO will be for a nominal 10% divestment. The mandate for Power Grid is to create nine high capacity corridors primarily from sikkim, Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh to AP and Tamil Nadu and another in the west from Delhi to Maharashtra and Karnataka. The proposed cost is already more than half a trillion INR at Rs 50,000 Crs. or nearly $12bn. It seems likely that financing for the same will be closed with the help of ADB and the World Bank.

 

On our India Infrastructure series, Power Corridor | Power Grid Corpn | The Banking and Strategy Initiative http://bit.ly/pwrgrid

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Just a few days earlier we did an entry during Bank results season at INDIA.ADVANTAGES.US while tracking the banking biggies pointing out the large unutilised capital with behemoth SBI as results came below par.  Well the bank did work in the mean time on getting up to speed on the new bank rate regime, so that borrowers and the bank itself can now use that as benchmark to estimate the approved rate for the loan contract. Apart from increasing the transparency of the lending regime for the bank, this measure also makes it mandatory for the bank rate to become the minimum rate, below which the bank may not be allowed to lend. 

Coupled with the Basel II regime and along with the new updated capital norms, this defined pricing will count towards a uniform practice for the industry and propagate safe and adequate capital standards from the indian point of view, when the world looks to it (at least the intellectuals)  for safer regulation that works

The State Bank of India has proposed a low 8% as the bank rate, predicated on an amazing 5.4% cost of deposits and a negative 0.25% for CRR and SLR costs per the unutilized funds as mentioned earlier. The bank had no prior history of such detailed pricing mechanisms and that this may not leave them much room across the 7 credit buckets or more required under credit norms(basel). It can hold loan assets of nearly a trillion rupees or $50bn and based on avl capital after this year's capital raising can easily challenge state biggies from China and the global banks working under the new regime.

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Funding the India Infrastructure Dream

Between the Power Finance Corporation with assets of nearly $750 million in Bhutan and maybe Colombo, Power Grid Corporation, waiting to finance projects worth $3 bn and the India Development Fund that placed Equity in GMR Infra, we had the seeds of interest in India Infrastructure. We also had a educated, well proved market that waited patiently and did not forget the criticality of the sovereign in taking the lead in funding the infrastructure and underline its commitment to fueling the infrastructure behemoth.

Apart from proving its commitment to the reforms, it also created a permanent minimisation of political risk with the sovereign stake translating to a virtual certainty that consequent governments will have to protect its coffers and not let the projects go to waste. The plethora of MoUs and the wasted effort at GIMs in Gujarat and Karnataka underline however the critical nature of this investment from the public account. six power plants with 6MT capacity have been signed in Bellary, more than one commitment ready to be reneged to balance the available resources and the built up projects.

GMR had to cancel a QIP when the real estate bubble screams rent the air in 2008 and many infra funding efforts in the fixed income area after the initial 20% equity has been raised, depend on the sovereign backing and some support from Multilateral development institutions like the World Bank etc. IDFC's earlier avatar and later HDFC itself was borne to put pressure on banking funds to move to infrastructure when the banks cannot look at maturities above 3-5 years without creating a conflict of interest. Today we even have a dedicated $12 bn fund in infrastructure rolling out the debt, while banks are free to deal with their preferences for commercial real estate and the ensuing default risk with the same developers.

The PPP financing of infrastructure and take out mchanisms apart, the real institutional investments in infrastructure have to continue to pay dividends. June has been a great month in this regard. Apart from funding IDBI's capital gap with more than a $750 million, GOI was able to create liquidity of more than $7-8 billion when corporates were absorbing the available liquidity to pay up the 3G licences. In that same buoyant period, REC was able to raise funds for India's rural power footprint where less than 15% of India's 600000 villages are currently electrified.

REC lends at a spread of more than 300 basis points thus maintaining great profitability and while the CURRENT FUNDS ARE NO LONGER avalable at the discounts avl to public institutions, they would still be fortunate to be allowed to be part of the $7bn beng raised this year thru tax free bonds, getting another $1 billion from that route. The international debt issue at the beginning of the month was targeted at European investors and REC was looking for only INR 500 Crores or $100m from the proceeds

 

 

Here are the terms again from Economic Times:

 

Rural Electrification Corp (REC) has raised 12.5 billion rupees via bonds with an integrated swap, two bankers said on Wednesday. It sold 15-year bonds paying a coupon of 8.75 percent, while the swap is linked to a Reuters benchmark plus a spread of 90 basis points with a reset each year, and 210 basis points with a reset every three years. The company had on Tuesday sought bids for at least 5 billion rupees of 10- and 15-year bonds.

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Funding the India Infrastructure Dream

Between the Power Finance Corporation with assets of nearly $750 million in Bhutan and maybe Colombo, Power Grid Corporation, waiting to finance projects worth $3 bn and the India Development Fund that placed Equity in GMR Infra, we had the seeds of interest in India Infrastructure. We also had a educated, well proved market that waited patiently and did not forget the criticality of the sovereign in taking the lead in funding the infrastructure and underline its commitment to fueling the infrastructure behemoth. Apart from proving its commitment to the reforms, it also created a permanent minimisation of political risk with the sovereign stake translating to a virtual certainty that consequent governments will have to protect its coffers and not let the projects go to waste. The plethora of MoUs and the wasted effort at GIMs in Gujarat and Karnataka underline however the critical nature of this investment from the public account. six power plants with 6MT capacity have been signed in Bellary, more than one commitment ready to be reneged to balance the available resources and the built up projects. GMR had to cancel a QIP when the real estate bubble screams rent the air in 2008 and many infra funding efforts in the fixed income area after the initial 20% equity has been raised, depend on the sovereign backing and some support from Multilateral development institutions like the World Bank etc. IDFC's earlier avatar and later HDFC itself was borne to put pressure on banking funds to move to infrastructure when the banks cannot look at maturities above 3-5 years without creating a conflict of interest. Today we even have a dedicated $12 bn fund in infrastructure rolling out the debt, while banks are free to deal with their preferences for commercial real estate and the ensuing default risk with the same developers. The PPP financing of infrastructure and take out mchanisms apart, the real institutional investments in infrastructure have to continue to pay dividends. June has been a great month in this regard. Apart from funding IDBI's capital gap with more than a $750 million, GOI was able to create liquidity of more than $7-8 billion when corporates were absorbing the available liquidity to pay up the 3G licences. In that same buoyant period, REC was able to raise funds for India's rural power footprint where less than 15% of India's 600000 villages are currently electrified. REC lends at a spread of more than 300 basis points thus maintaining great profitability and while the CURRENT FUNDS ARE NO LONGER avalable at the discounts avl to public institutions, they would still be fortunate to be allowed to be part of the $7bn beng raised this year thru tax free bonds, getting another $1 billion from that route. The international debt issue at the beginning of the month was targeted at European investors and REC was looking for only INR 500 Crores or $100m from the proceeds Here are the terms again from Economic Times: Rural Electrification Corp (REC) has raised 12.5 billion rupees via bonds with an integrated swap, two bankers said on Wednesday. It sold 15-year bonds paying a coupon of 8.75 percent, while the swap is linked to a Reuters benchmark plus a spread of 90 basis points with a reset each year, and 210 basis points with a reset every three years. The company had on Tuesday sought bids for at least 5 billion rupees of 10- and 15-year bonds.

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As of last year, we expected the government of India to bear the costs of exploration till the deigned 25% of domestic consumption and oil marketing and distribution from the import bill for the other 75%. This bill was budgeted for much less and expected to come to $17.5bn in 2010. Given the spiraling fiscal deficit and political compulsions of the government, once 3G revenues to the extent of a similar $15bn cam in it was deemed likely that the EGOM would also shy away from deregulating petrol or even in the best case not take up hikes in regulated motor oils like diesel and ‘cooking’ oils like kerosene. However, Friday’s mid-market moves have slashed its subsidy bill by a $8 billion in one shot, bringing oil under recoveries in diesel to the same level as petrol earlier.  With this stroke, the government is richer by a Rs 1 Trillion, and with a new Rupee symbol, ready to close the chapter on subsidies and social reform that should never have been part of the same soup.

The next challenge of course is to rein in the basis of all discontent, and even international economic instability, that of inflation. Research analyst colleagues in broking outfits have already estimated the inflation impact of the hike at 100 basis points on the average inflation bill. The immediate impact would be higher and in fact the average rate may inch much higher causing the rupee’s strengthening moves to be consigned to history. A study of the China case at a later point may prove more instructive in proving it but I rather doubt the correlation between the expected strengthening of the currency and the country’s fiscal health as immediate features like current account balances and capital flows ( esp if made convertible) being significant movers and able to break the back of any country.

Nevertheless, a similar hard hat measure would be to cut the grass from under one’s feet and bite the capital convertibility bullet. Being busy right away, I may not be able to contribute more indepth analysis on each such economic subject, but as the debate hots up we would make sure that the correct stance and the correct reform is chosen for India’s long term success.

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Of course we will still have a 600 million strong consumer class by 2020, but according to a report highlighted by the old lady TOI, 650 million Indians counted themselves as tourists in 2009 which is at least 10% more than 2008. And meanwhile Indian diaspora living abroad ( US) have stopped coming home or at least their hometown according to the statistics. Gross tourist arriivals are 13.7 million and from that no more than 5 million would still count as net Foreigners visiting India. 

The places to visit are the limited attractions on offer in campaigns and Travel agency offices abroad and does not include Bangalore or Rajasthan. 

AP and Tirupathi get 157 million tourists from the domestic census while UP and Tamil Nadu also get more than a 100 million each. FTVs (Foreign Tourist visitors)  are more interested in Tamil Nadu (17.6% of 13.7 milllion) Maharashtra and Delhi (14% each) Even Noida and UP get 11% of these visitors, not much left to visit after that! 

Meanwhile the NBA raft is starting to get an Indian audience even before we could here anything about our team selections for the Commonwealth games. That and all the usual drivel apart, we need a lot of investment in Tourism to even catch up with a ll the happening destinations in Asia. The promised explosion in Medical tourism (50000 visitors) 

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Did you even care that DNA India was a DB Corp group company! with zee partnership? Looks a mile away from home of the parent companies though! The social web does make a difference. But seriously, here is a similarily more convoluted corporate web from ADAG group in Media and Communications which has smatterings of brand identity and hope written in BIG letters

 

 

The rescinding of the Non compete agreement after 10 years has seemingly been a long pending plan of action critical to Anil ambani's Reliance. He has immediately moved in both media and telecom sectors and also transferred the Reliance Infrastructure's Gas based power worth 1200 KW to the inactive Reliance Power. Anil Ambani's RCOM has gone ahead and jumped in with already jilted Etisalat of Dubai. Etisalat's earlier transactions with Sistema had been rejected in April by FIPB probably raising questions on the Domestic partners' contribution. Shyam Telecom would have probably peferred Sistema's foreign partner to claim near total ownership with continued funding which might be unfortunate victim of the new regulations or the intentions game. RCOM on the other hand has 67% Reliance ADA ownership. The first offer is for 25% of RCOM followed by a 20% open offer. RCOM's $4 per share price might get a bid of upto $6 and cost Etisalat upto $2.2 billion fo rthe 25% and another $2 billion for the open offer brining Anil Ambani's group's stake down to 55% before the open offer. Busy 'Migration' season Meanwhile Tatas have also announced an acquisition in South Africa taking over an alternative nergy producer that converts coke to both the popular Motor Oils Also, Renuka Sugars continue to report activity on the deal front and the automobile ancilliary units are reporting a great expotr situation. Of course on the inward remittance side we open in Bangalore tomorrow at the Global Investor Meet roping in an amount close to twice the state's $75 billion GDP. Posco however has likely withdrawn despite the recent strength of road show in Korea with response from Hyundai and others. The Reliance ADA Group is also active in Media Reliance Media and Entertainment interests straddle Reliance Media Works which owns 200 screens across India and Reliance Media World that owns Big FM on Radio and also BIG Animation and other digital interests. This unit Reliance Media World is soon to be rebranded as Reliance Broadcast networks Limited, with a 'renewed' emphasis on sales and hypergrowth in poor man's marketing media of radio and outdoors. BIG Pictures is the unit for Film production. Reliance Media world is extending its presence to TV with a joint venture on with Sumner Redstone's CBS ( He also owns Viacom) Interestingly, and we would be encouraged, there is a simultaneous discussion of a stake sale in CBS wordlwide which would be a good fit for Anil's interests. He has active financing arrangements with Steven Spielberg for over 20 films. CBS's launch would bring a lot of good TV programming and ready sports options for Satellite and Cable providers. However Anil has to be careful that this second lease for his group are not marred by discussions of Corporate Governance and Market practices for his empire. The Direct to Home Matrix The last 'incubatee' in the convergence comms empire from Reliance Media companies is a newly christened Reliance Digital World, which is Reliance BIG Tv. The DTH arm is also going for an IPO for a 25% public stake and that would become the fourth listed media and comms company in the group if you include the GSM and broadband provider RCOM. Currently Reliaance Big TV is a fourth largest player in the hyper growth markets in DTH reaching more than a million house holds with the market having reached 20 million households in the next three months.

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Of course, we are one too. 

A thank you note to all those who stayed through thick and thin since we launched the Advantage zyaada bouquet, with ADVANTAGES.US, TWITTERONE.COM (Advantage social), ADVANTAGES.US/BRANDS (Advantage Brands) and INDIA streams at INDIA.ADVANTAGES.US and HOTSHOTS.ADVANTAGES.US Some of the emerging brands globally in the mean time have done so by mere digital presence and helped us build social brands and we are talking about Facebook and Twitter breaking the cocoon, Postrank and Posterous becoming almost mandatory on the social web and even WORDPRESS as a brand flowering into prominence. Though semantics and brand scores may differ, we are really glad me made this journey together ( duh, cliche?) And we had a Power 150 ranking mechanism too to help make it. But then, in this global hullabulloo what we wanted to speak to were the new Indian brands of the decade, and you'll see why when we mention them.

The Low Cost Carrier- Spicejet

When a prime media marketing led campaign can successfully deliver to the right audience and the Low Cost Carrier can still keep costs down for three years (It's first marketing campaign started in 2008) then the $300million valuation for the airline is a true blue feather in the cap for one of its latest competitors to superbrands Jet and Kingfisher in the sector. The ad is quite punchy too, and i feel pretty well targeted.

The Indian made mobiles - Spice Mobile

Indian mobile manufacturers sold more than a 12 million handsets in 2009 a sizable part of the frequently changed 100 million handsets sold in the country, and while that itself was a shocker, the growing market has taken well to the choice made available. Karbonn and Maxx Mobile are sponsoring IPL which is still on, Micromax is sponsoring more cricket with Twinkle and Akshay's advertising and Spice has roped in Sonam Kapoor as brand ambassador in the new grassroots campaign spending $30 million on the phones Modi's Spice recentl;y got rich out of its take from the sale of services markets ( and licences) in Punjab and Karnataka and has online, print, TV and outdoor media pieces

The SMS Gupshup.com kind of thing

The brand to watch out for, in the highly commoditised digital segment is the innovatively designed SMSgupshup.com which lets you create online broadcast groups by SMS delivering local broadcast messages and targeted advertising in a unique way. They have 150 advertisers enroled on the platform and its 30 million members would be quite aware of the service brand itself. Successful campaigns like ebay, turner entertainment and UTI mutual fund have used the channel, according to intomobile.com. The lifestyle brands that matte are all on Gupshup communities with Pepsi(60k members), Dell, Tata Jagruti(25k members) and ING Financial

The fifth element - New cellphone services companies -Uninor

Though all the new service providers that are near to completing their first year, including MTS and Videocon have launched services in some circles, Uninor's $3bn capex in 8 circles seems well poised with an effort to roll out in from key centers carrying an urban tinge to the rarer circles along with a sense of being new withe the Swedish owner Telenor's logo

Aircel is ofcourse already a veritable brand with its pan india presence and simpler pricing when it came in 3 years back. They also have great brand ambassadors in Chennai Superkings and Dhoni's face continues to work the magic for them

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Ajay has some concise notes on the campaign india blog and i am using them because it is Cannes, yes pronouned K-a-a-n. of course my trip to Cannes was neither blessed with the Film Festival invite or the Red Lion nominations, I just went on a whirlwind tour of the French Riviera after landing at Florence one weekend and crammed in a vespa/piaggio ride to pisa on the saturday morning as well. Mostly ran through the region by train and landed at Cannes just as twilight set in and walking the beach was fun. Of course, i might be mixing more than one trip into a single memory here. The Red Lion aspirants and the available few however are very much stationed at Cannes, in the auditorium ( I believe there is only one) and hopefully at least some waiting to go out to the beach at night.

And of course for all the effort India won 3 Bronzes and 2 Silvers in Radio, Media and Outdoor categories in the Red Lions

The list of sessions at Cannes 'advertising convention' of course shows a lot of depth in advertising know how that goes missing specially in digital execution. A lot of work needs to be done to get to that stable level in campaigns that car videos on the web do not feel like over powering innovation to last more than a year . JUST SAYING!Also I wondeer wh ere are all the revolutionary Out of Home guys! Really all this drivel is getting me down :D

  • DraftFCB had promoted their session well, during the last 2 days. And therefore the attendance was good.The agency team reminded us that the marketing complexity had multiplied, in recent times – 26 times, to be precise, in recent years. And their formula to address this growing complexity is ‘reduction’. They believe that there is only a 6.5 second window of opportunity, when a consumer is open to the brand – in his attention swings from leaning in to leaning out. And if only you could catch his attention in this brief moment when he is ‘open’…

 

  • Hill and Knowlton had a speaker who cited examples when ‘flash mobs’ worked/didn’t work. It’s only when you remain true to the brand and bring-in an ‘act’ in a public place will the message strike home, in a memorable way. A magnum opus, for the sake of it will not help.

 

  • There was a session on independent agencies and Aggie’s presentation stood out, as could be evinced from the thunderous applause he received. He equated a global agency network to a clock that has all the parts moving to precision, with no scope for individuality or emotion. He believes that once you realize that you are a human with emotions and passion, you will automatically want your own space that nurtures and encourages thinking out of the ordinary and unpredictable ideas. The ‘Aman ki asha’ campaign got the crowds very excited.

 

  • The most awaited session, so far, was the Yahoo session with Ben Stiller as their ‘show stopper’. The smart delegates made sure they attended the prior session to ensure a seat. And then just didn’t leave the auditorium. But this session was a real crowd puller. There was a very long queue of delegates aspiring to get in, with not a seat to spare. Compliments to the organizers, who sensed this swell and avoided any disappointment. They quickly provided alternate rooms with screens that played a live telecast of the panel discussion.Ben Stiller was the hero of the panel, all right, not leaving much for the Yahoo moderator and other panelist (Jeff Goodby) to say or do. Ben was there as himself, the comic actor – and not as a relevant panelist to the proposed agenda - “the role of creativity in shaping our world“. Can’t say that many came out of this session with any tangible learning or take-home messages.

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Despite their protestations to the contrary there is not much difference between the stock market darlings Kotak and the wannabes that have grown in individual hypergrowth cycles like YES, ING, J&K BANK and even the older groups like FEDERAL BANK, the just acquired Bank of Rajasthan and the Hinduja owned Indus ind Bank.

 

 

As you can see, despite the higher market capitalization of Kotak Bank and the predatory sale by Rabo Bank making way for its own NBFC set up in India, YES is pretty much in the same league without the 1500 odd private clients of Kotak and its myriad local short cuts that have got it in trouble in Gujarat ( IPO &  Kotak securities accounts) Mumbai and other local markets.

 

On the other hand YES held up pretty well to longstanding Rabobank plans to piggyback on it to learn and enter the Indian market much like Nissan’s failed venture with the local toughie M&M. YES is hardly a member of the Bombay club and has a convenient lifestyle brand positioning in the sector well placed for a prescient hypergrowth cycle that leads the reform process as an ablee member of RBI policy watch if only it can get its lead on the rural portfolio right and support its grandiose plans with quick capital. However as an Indian only Bank it may be alien to homegrown PSB cultures in mid town markets and may not compete till it receives the expected 4-5 new investors for the sale of Rabobank stake at $5.8 per share. The capital markets however are unlikely to chase them too much for information, interest in the mid cap sector primarily driven by FII and PE interest. Though YES has protested that YES is in the middle of an expansion drive with the new velocity it is doubtful as earlier expansions of the bank have been “highlighting” the impediment of being a mid-cap player with no special niche that can grow up to speed.

 

However the case maybe, we believe in YES!

 

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ET and mint continue to cover the IRDA ULIP victory from unique perspectives, ET inimitably going on cranking it about how SEBI lost a big piece of real estate and the MF industry continues to a mere trickle  of INR 2000 crores or $ 500m in equity schemes in 2009 against INR 50000 or $10bn in 2007. The number of agents has increased exponentially in the meantime with National Institut of Securities Markets taking the mantle from AMFI and running sales and ops certifications across series 4 and series 5 exams. The issue of course is to settle the big discrepancy between mutual funds and units of Variable Life schemes or ULIPs in India in terms of agent commissions, with late entrants in Life treating the INR2 Trillion annual inflow from these quasi mutual fund schemes as the holy grail and sometimes applying commission structures of traditional life products of 15%-40% to daily NAV schemes. mint reports are mean while focussing on proposed IRDA reforms somewhat lost in the now error prone ET.

The commissions on the mutual fund side emanating from entry loads have been elimintaed by SEBI diktats leaving mutual funds to concentrate on debt schemes with corporate buyers and direct sales online or thru banks. MF distributors carry a unique clout still. IRDA mandates the changes in commission for these market returns linked products to half of the current 50-60% cost over first 5 years. in many cases ULIPs at Max New York and others carry only a 10-15% cost over the same 5 years with or without amortization. IRDA will also set mandatory insured amount targets removing the available flexibility for insurers floating 5 times premium and 1.05 times premium as minimum life covers for 10 year and 20 year terms respectively

Having won the Turf wars IRDA has apparently a mandate to regulate the unit linked insurance market for effective control looking for min return guarantees as part of the law in pension products, the bar being somewhere between 4-5% as margin driven insurers are likely to look for loopholes in this uniquely indian system to recover lost profit margins without understanding or responsibly executing the limited freedom granted to them till now much like the Indian credit cards story surviving on retail rates of 40% and more instead of investing in effective underwriting and limit management processes.

 

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I am a great admirer of the ADAG companies, choosing to fight for corporate governance at a difficult time and making good headway in Telecom, Power and Finance markets in India using the Reliance brand and giving it real shape.

Mukesh's Reliance in the mean time has grown its interests in Petrochemicals bidding and successfully running E&P across 50+ oil and gas blocks and adding more in the upcoming NELP VII this/next month. Reliance has of course also reached a 10MMSCMD Gass supply agreement with ADAG for the 1600MW Power units likely to be operational soon and maintains leadership in petrochemicals

It has created good legwork in the BOP markets in Retail working with policy makers , though unhindered by corporate governance and premium branding. Reliance Retail has created good real estate in Bangalore for example though with multi brand retail on the verge of exploding with new FDI regulation and with political pressure getting the better of them in UP, they have suffere large reverses esp in procuring fruits and vegetables. 

Reliance Industries also has a couple of great ideas in Finance and could revive the co branded cards with Citi or other banks now that there is no Non compete agreements. Today's announcements on becoming franchisees for MTNL 3G services is a fine example of currency and brand investments finally getting an entry into the Reliance ethos.  

 

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Our new web from India has spawned some good marketing material but apart from you tube clones one can only depend on the furious few for good news, Campaign India being the suave and updated content portal again pioneers without money in the belt much like us but significantly well funded to boot up the best A&M stories of two decades back, Storyboard and Logo (Bloomberg UTV). well is there another?

TNT similarily works with a single minded well purposed Turner Classics library, Zee supporting MGM studios with an exclusive Library sale, both delivering Classics by the score for an all day movie fest whenever you have the blues. TNT manages its penetration of the 2% English speaking GEC audiences coming out as premium and focussed while Zee Studios fights the windmills between the HBO times, the new look Warner Bros and the sometimes surprisingly lucid Star Movies. NDTV Lumiere and UTV's World Movies channels churn movies without any real audience burn. Imagine of course is under new management with Turner General Entertainment getting the trade and posting a certain newbie Saurabh Tewari in charge. 

While the Cs of Coke and Cannon with some VW and a lot of shoes dominate the media landscape with all too frequent churn after 90 days of the same campaign, Turner's classics do provide us with a significant hope for loyalty and stickiness and any audience of that bouquet is definitely likely to count as the most influential in the media landscape esp with increasing interactivity coming to TV. GECs have defnitely providded much of the leadership but real leaders do continue to be a part of that small set of channels which includes Bloomberg UTV but is preominantly centered around business news, Colors and HBO. 

whether the TNT crowd can become one with that same rareified cloud and offer GRPs is never a question in this case..but then monetization models are also a serious challenge for such super premium content which brooks no advertising or which can singlehandedly still significantly reduce TV's influence (hopefully) if taken off

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Much as the advertising fraternity would like to call it a wee, a month or more, the lure of Cannes and the Red Lions does not much exceed that of the I AM She Miss Universe Contest or the Femina Miss India pageant and is much rather carried only a night.

Blogs of course from advertising champs and other marketing / content providers have started carrying Cannes, but the Red Lions seem much like parroting the industry's associations for industry's sake, failing to carry its thought leadership or its 'magic' falling short of the Oscars and the charm of the French Riviera and any MTV awards that get more visibility and more mileage for the employers, brands and the advertisers. Local awards in Goa did fine by me.

This of course applies as invites to the event are rare and my trip to Cannes would be just another stroll and Bhajji on the beach without the red carpet invites. Other CMOs of course must have been luckier, but i do not see that much in the prestgious event's reporting this year. Of course Aishwarya Rai and other brand ambassadors do get a look see during the movie nites but that ain't much as they say it. 

 

 

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Ever since we moved to india.advantages.us our readers skiing in from google might not find us that readily. Well on the Direct Tax Code there is not that much an issue as the reportage from ET and mint and the Calvinball on the financial markets (livemint.com/expenseaccount) remain well directed for the lesser than 30 million investor population and banking wannabes, suave bankers, global services professionals and MBAs without a cause all having a fairly consistent opinion including the fairly well versed 3 million strong online investor population in the country. 

Back to the Drawing board

Where we opened yesterday, there was a lot of misgiving as the tax auditors had a field day on the revised elements of the code.The auditors and the CPA fraternity had fun deriding all reformist statements and revisions chaptered in the new discussion as all the exceptions the had lost were reinstated and they could get back to speaking for kicks on how they are suffering immensely from the new DTC which is effectively now, nor a rule based revelation, nor a very long distance from the existing code on the tax front, either in collection or in simplifying and institutionalising reform. As we mentioned yesterday, it is more or less in line with earlier reform measures from this government and we want to focus on the changes on Corporate front.

Saving The Tax Avoidance treaties, and the new IT avatar

The newly drafted rate of 25% as mentioned is all but a mirage. Given that all exceptions that lost the government a quick $17b in tax revenues are back and that MAT is again on a profit base calculation - the question of whether reform is actually required has been raised and laid to rest by our charter of auditors and accountants for a long second innings The SEZ exceptions have given foreign and domestic investment a suitable boost with a lot of the old proposals likely to be revived. The SEZ exceptions can now be suitably grandfathered for past years. Similarily, non profits have been exempted from Wealth tax on unproductive assets and a complete rewrite of non profit tax code has been presented which seems to be effective till the established tax 'auditors' revive earlier borderline arguments and make a mess of it. Elsewhere corporate tax offices have got back express denials of treaty overrides on DTAA and merging of residence definitions with international law allowing those with partly managed / controlled operations from India as resident for calculation of income and liabilities From the assessment of media reports, the said provisos on Capital Gains becoming part of Ordinary income with a 50% discount on long term gains income do leave the market in a soup but are the only surviving hope for the new tax rate of 25%. Even FIIs have been otherwise expressly denied any other treatment of securities income. As part of ordinary income, Capital gains that have been calculated on duration from the end of the financial year in which they have been purchased and which have to mandatorily be held for 12 calendar months to be counted as long term gains, such Capital Gains are now also to benefit from ordinary salary exemptions and those on house interest of 150000. Her's getting back to the dull financial markets, peaceful at last after the continuing vagaries of Europe and everything else from regulation to oil no longr affecting markets or credit flows in the global marketplace.

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Or the Lunacy of making reforms wait Twenty years

The Direct Tax Code when it came now a year back, was much awaited and with illustrative rates that defined the governments' intentions as nobel and exemplary taking salaried classes and economic data into a new corrective orbit at the same time. However like all reform implementations of this regime ( Manmohan Singh, Chids and from NK Singh to the current Rev Secy not much has changed since 1995 or since 2001 when Insurance was reformed ) it has started at an ideological starting point, built in more disappointments and will cascade into a saving grace by the skin of the teeth by the time it makes law come August/September. 

Let's begin at the beginning

The bill or the Direct Tax Code in its first draft, is almost forgotten. Let's face it. The basis of the revenue calculations at the new all time low rates read like a dream for the government and collections of March 2010 have given everyone a golden chance to renege on the pledges never made. The Income Tax rates are going back to the annual Finance Bill and that is a realistic thing. I believe the government is unlikely to renege on those rates except by a few pips or maybe pull down the top slab a flap or two.  

The Wealth tax rate of 0.25% for $12 millon ( Rs 50 Crores) is the first minor one which is a great reform but may not hold hopes of great increase in personal declarations. The Capital Gains Rate was to be merged into a single rate as per ordinary income slabs, and that is unlikely to be acceptable as such so that contentious point has been left out even in this revision as a super bargaining chip much like the KP committee's fuel increase recommendations

The important one to catch in the revision among the 11 highlighted items has been the acknowledged gradient of EET-EEE for provident  fund, pension fund and insurance product outcomes. The EET regime would have been a hard one to swallow and once the salaried start thinking about declaration of such holdings the tax regime would have been in a big big soup. so it was always EET at the beginning and then come down to more things real. Similarily unfortunately seems to be the case for the uniform tax rate for corporates, which now will be used for last minute balancing and the 'illustrative' 25% rate may become more of a ideal conditions never achieved kind of dream to be dangled a s a carrot.

The problem of course is that the ideal start presumed much rationalisation to recover from increasing tax base and coverage from  UID, computerisation and other concepts of actually reaching the incomes at source and thus creating a tangible trail aka the US Tax system. Thus the rates are now unlikely to be permanent and once EEE regime returns the calculations along with reductions likely on Capital gains are causing a rethink in the Department of Revenue, that obviously has not been central to the first score released eight months back.

As usual nearer implementation, the government is also likely to erase all simplifications for exemptions etc, the plan of erasing them unacceptable to politicians and to commentators at a loss for where the tax code is going and hard pressed to present material opinions in Tv press and elsewhere.  It happened to GST and it is happening to DTC and it will happen again to GST.  Corporates Tax consultations seem to unnecessary hinge on the value of Rs 69000 crores (INR690billion/$17billion) in exemptions received and once the same is erased, the rationalised rate of 25% has a chance. 

We would still recommend that the government go ahead and axe the corporate exemptions and start with a single 25% tax for Domestic and global corporates, else the rates would go back to usurius levels and the investability score plummet. 

Discussing the Draft

Your Copy

The items revised in this paper and invited for comment:

i. Minimum Alternate Tax (MAT) - Gross assets vis-a-vis book profit.

ii. Tax treatment of savings - Exempt Exempt Tax (EET) vis-a-vis Exempt Exempt Exempt (EEE) basis.

iii. Taxation of income from employment - Retirement benefits and perquisites.

iv. Taxation of income from house property.

v. Taxation of capital gains

vi. Taxation of non-profit organisations

vii. Special Economic Zones – Taxation of existing units

viii. Concept of Residence in the case of a company incorporated outside India.

ix. Double Taxation Avoidance Agreement (DTAA) vis-a-vis domestic law.

x. Wealth Tax.

xi. General Anti Avoidance Rule (GAAR).

 

Items of personal tax and wealth tax are more or less dependent on final rates except for conceding EEE regime on retirement and pure insurance products forcing treatment of ulips as an investment further apart from the sebi-irda-amfi wars

On items of Corpoate Tax:

The proposed asset based MAT of 0.25% of total assets for banks and 2% of total assets has been reduced to not much more than a worthy ideal like all first time government proposals. The changes envisaged include clear indications to support investment incentives supported by the new DTC, and are suggestive of recommendations for treating preferentially infrastructure companies with long gestation periods, and importantly disregarding Capital WIP assets as they bloat both larger expansion plan companies like Reliance and infrastructure companies 

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According to the GIM site, Karnataka has been rated no. 1 by World Bank in Investment Climate within India

Karnataka rolling out plans for coastal area for Tourism Development helping with single window clearance and land banks

Karnataka already have plans incl Devanahalli at Bangalore Intl Airport and commitments in Cement, Steel, B'lore and Integrated Development

 

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    1. According to the GIM site, Karnataka has been rated no. 1 by World Bank in Investment Climate within India
    2. Karnataka rolling out plans for coastal area for Tourism Development helping with single window clearance and land banks
    3. Karnataka already have plans incl Devanahalli at Bangalore Intl Airport and commitments in Cement, Steel, B'lore and Integrated Development
    4. Ahead of its first Global Investor Meet, Bangalore has been busy with Road shows in Singapore and Korea expecting INR 4T or $100bn
Shell is investing in R&D with a $250mn tab while Reliance and GAIL are spending $3bn in Gas pipelines to the northern belts and till B'lore
  • Commitments from Lafarge for $250nmn in cement and Arcelor Mittal's $6bn center around the Bellary mineral belt ( Mittal Town)..
  • Karnataka also leans on its know-prowess with 170 Engg colleges and 270 Polytechnics, 100 Medical Colleges and 420 Paramedic training inst.
  • Govt is also hoping to develop 20 helitourimsm destinations and 5 SEZs across 5 Industrial Corridors in Belgaum, Bellary etc

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