Is it the regulation that is going to disappoint?

Saturday, September 4, 2010

Now is the time, many participants in the Indian markets would like a breather. The internecine bickering in trades when whole days go by in dull 5 point bands and new bullish levels are lost by a whisker because of the shorts thinking the market is over priced, it is a well nigh trading battle in the markets. But the world outside the market ( if you sday so!) trying to ccreate a new level of mature regulation for India Inc as a flourishing property and  a thriving market and regulation is being recreated at different fronts. We had the foreshight to table a new Direct Tax Code, GST Law, the new Company Law and settle some disputes between IRDA, SEBI and RBI as well. We did not however, have the where withal to turn any of them into viable laws, the watered down versions of Direct Taxes, GST, and even new FDI in Retail and Defence about to bring down the crumbling edifice it suddenyl looks. All the new regulation discussed in 2009 , started at a very different all things ready kind of deal but all of them were seeming threats to established corporates and auditors and could not stand the evracity of their ideas for even one draft. A revenue positive Tax code required bringing the new code to much the old edifice, a GST law and a retail FDI law are being blackballed by states whio do have enough of their own cash but cannot face up to overpowering change from a strong center.

As Rajan Mittal also mentioned, going back on retail FDI after proposing such a wonderful workaround in terms of back office/ procurement support for local businesses and even exclusive licensing shows that a "Bombay Club" is alive and kicking and well in control in the bureaucracy and the reform agenda is going along only slower than it did in the previous decade. Time to move on though, India is still one of the luckier ones with a functioning government and a direcion which is still a secular upside, one that will come and go in hiccups without any new ideas being born. Retail FDI will not clear for more than 49% Foreign ibnvestment Cap, GST will be a very high amount and services will not transition in the first instance, subsidy outgo is will remain and direct taxes will net the same as they did last year with cosmetic 5% shavings off the top not good for the store to get much more. Enough has been achieved and unfortunately ther e will always be a umbrella comparison with other markets whence the Indian Economy and its markes will continue to be pulled into unnecessary restraint. Life goes on.

New Company Law already has five or ten different handshaekes with SEBI where there is going to be internecine argument on turf. RBI still has to clarify its position in the nations Economic decision making and inflation is wel land truly out of control, interest rates likely to end up inn the double digits before market amnalysts turn around on their hypothese and figure out what works.

Posted via email from The investment blog on Post

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