Brokerage reports continue their 2010 bias, DB pre calling a new bull run last week and CIti and CLSA now betting on a pullback, Citi betting on banking's new value based outlook after the crashing spiral and CLSA on much of the other sectors including IT With PE plays and MNCs making a lot of the interesting retail lifestyle sector in the sub continent and questionable practices dogging telecom and real estate, subsidised pricing dogging energy and chemicals (fertilisers) the public markets depend now more than ever on the mainstream large caps which would be populated in 50% of the market by the banks. Despite slow credit growth ( i.e. slower than our own benchmarks of 20% though better than everyone else) banks in india including ICICI Bank and SBI underline profitability and maintaining NIMs of 3-4% is pretty much run of the mill for us.

Of course in theexploding market cap pie , a lot of healthcare education and retail consumption(lifestyle) stories will add large values but they would never steal the  preeminence of India's self sufficient and savvy banks compete effectively with MNC players and leverage rules hat are stacked against them in the global markets. The 90% unbanked population has mobile banking, the urban poor have cash withdrawals at their grocer and most Tier I, 2 and 3 towns have access to consumer credit for cars, homes and other personal consumption. That is not to say we can continuing to grow into the hitherto unbanked, much as no one expects Indian IT to really penetrate much more of the global IT services market, but we remain the #3 economy and we would be growqing faster than most. also our credit needs and nvestment needs have much more literate efforts behind them egging them to grow faster as we continue to expect more than 20% growth from any above average public company in the country. That is the imperativer for the value buyer which our markets serve and it would not take more than a blink of the eye for buying to catch on where selling has been paramount in the seemingly tired 2011.  

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