A Whimper for the results season! Ewww So Awkward!

Tuesday, May 10, 2011

How my daughter would have reacted to them market story being played out. The trading stories really lack maturity here in the NSE minefields of INR 1 Trillion -- two trillion on a good day -- with most value plays (Mid Caps) strapped on to 4 investors and 1 broker playing an amusement park ride and nothing so intelligent or scary as a roller coaster.  The results season just showcased how easy it is for Indian companies to grow double digits quarter to quarter but it is just not getting the bang for the buck as we look on to someone to start rolling fresh cash into the markets. DIs buying of course to reduce the impact cost stick on to this purchase cycle and are ending up with value picks where most of the leads coined by india bulls have gone kaput led by "rate sensitives" > Where SBI's deposit rates and cost of funding was as low as 6% in 2009, its raising deposits by 75 bps to 225 bps along with lending rates as thankfully however been noted a s a great positive, but why they are waiting on ICICI Bank despite the big results or HDFC and HDFC Bank, The erstwhile Mid Cap, Axis Bank has of course pegged on to a new size as the Big 4 locally and plans to grow slowly, an example of a stock market darling that got her ambition and served the investors well. But many more are waiting none fof them likely unresearched . The drawbacks are there nonetheless but not the ones recognised in the marketplace. For example, without due liberalisation, most sectors now have leading stocks with larger sales and growth numbers, not listed on the Indian markets, we have the Emerging market ETFs supplying regular funds to India keeping India at a lowly7-8% weightage and the India ETFs getting into pretty laconic and clubby investment cycles some where probably because of the small number controlling larger sums. None of the drawbacks is so contrary than our predilection for the worst grade of investors/traders., like Morgan Stanley leading press and networks into a decided trend. MS has a long history of catching the BIG LOSER pretty quick and in lthat it is almost a 99.3% consistent leading indicator on picking the wrong trend or a trend dying out. I am so tired and confused. 

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