Happy Thursdays! The rate hiked, will we go back to business? (Late Report)

Thursday, June 16, 2011

Here you go, the beer will go down in happier times on Friday, as markets take an opportunity to reflect on slowness of growth in the worst performing Asian / Emerging market and the expected 25 bps hike a marker for keeping low interest and maybe even testing a new bottom as India failed in its 2009 bid to go over 10% and now avers 8% is enough/ FDI flows for April will be out next week as low interest and slow growth replace low interest rates and high growth. From a cursory browse through of ET(economictimes.com) it seems Cash volumes are now INR 90 bln a day in Cash turnover, last seen in mid 2003 and a third of that seen in 2009 in the same month

Some shorts are now paying full cent for the dollar in th Indian markets as keeping the markets up for monthly pronouncements stays in fashion and gives bulls the time to use filler time on the networks for the same 30-90 stocks championing consumer spending. At least Titan and Juilant are more than extended and make easy pickings

The infrastructure / construction development sector still does not allow LLPs , but allows 100% FDI for performance, each new PE signing Infracos has signed a new road project ( $500mln each for a not too large project bid). The third sector still keeping me on a fine perch is aviation as loss making KFA and Spice jet also pick up 15-10% more traffic. Autos should become more expensive, Coal companies passed over in the next quarter even as RBI's Financial Stability reort to the MoF still shows 18% credit growth in the banking system, a near equal deposit growth and a tenuous and uncertain link to the global financial system persists and noted players withdraw from the Indian market in terms of their cash on the prowl and planned to be in stake.  In a way, we stil have the perfect insulation to stay alve in the global winter and the global winter runs prolonged but in the long run, i look slike we and the world are talking two diferent things and maintaining a sotto voce constance in the two paradigms a task akin to your English school teacher trying to teach you all the nances of letter writing and presentation, leading to another fractured new generation with their own lingua franca

 

Posted via email from The investment blog on Post

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