The conundrum we have all lived thru has surprisingly not that many on corrporate watch predicting both ends and living through it with most Indiab ulls going all out with the first 4800 breach on buy calls for seectors including banks and auto while deraing IT and then of course banks in the high rate regime. Still there are a lot of bank watchers who gave in to value in PSU banks rather than waitt for the slowcreation of new benchmarks of value. On the oter hand the few who did are ubiquitous like Standard Chartered Research team and maybe one other as  both stuck to the falling apart at 5600 and the bottom at 4800. Others on the network include Traders and Technical experts who know when its too early to put a buy call.  Standard Chartered today reiterated the oe obvious fact that the recovery is not here and "it will take time for the investment cycle to bottom out" Ofcourse a lot of the intermediate recovery already seems to be topping out at 5150 and the weekend may not offer anything spectacular.

Interestingly, recruitments at banks have picked up but as IT / ITES slowdown did not impact recruitments that much in August the incipient online emploment index has a lot of analysis for the funny nbone between the lags for job seekers while employers do need to keep a watch on the changing hiring trends usually a sign of the consolidation and a different set of strengthened ssectors may emerge from there as well, Banks will take their time though as rae hikes ar ealso not quite done and instead of the famed one last 25 bps hike going around between economists and wealth management desks, I am going to aver there are going to be 2-3 hikes where I rather agree witht he HSBC Global commetary. Thus with Speptember 16 rate hike almost certain, alikely spike in the market will only vcome frm that hike not being 50 bps, or at least not being resupposed to be 50 bps by the markets. The problem is with Food and Fuel inflation singing the high notes consitently and continuing to stunt the Indian Economy's on stage performance. DSespite robust sales, September is going to underline a stad corporate performance by India as input prices continure to rise steeply and more than undersline higher prices in the Economy. Home loan tenures are crossing 40-50 years where therey are allowed to but there is no respite from inflation and no way rate hikes can trn down readily at this time

Also where India remains consistent is in growing toplines at Corporates and Expense registers at households increasing by more than 20% plus, thus such a green salad analysis for all you out there reading our research products

 

 

 

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