Predilections: The Organised Mindset of a bear
Sunday, November 20, 2011
Or, What you should be doing when the markets go dropping off that Pirate cliff:
1a. If you are thinking about buying gold, do rethink about that one as Gold has to wait for strong bearish pronouncements to move from here. However did you know that Central banks have bought 150 tonnes of the metal in one week and are still at 10% of the levels they held in the 90s when they sold and everyone else bought gold.
1b. As Central banks count as the most followed buyers right now, Gold's meteoric rise in the last few weeks may restart Also India becomes a candidate for taking everything down right now as it gets into a tighter inflation high, currency weaker every day and deficit unsent kind of tougher twirls with a higher and higher downside, but then we would still do 7% growth so do not think of a a market below 4500 Nifty, really ( even if it breaks down to 4420 you can beasar with me, right!)
1c. Did you recheck your list of stocks to buy: All time lows everyday present great opportunities for investors out there to verify at leisure. You have at least 2 - 3 weeks to select, drop and re- select winners..
2. Watch that hollywood movie that gets released in India on time during market hours..You could not get a more predictable market direction with no trading bumps mid day since last to last Friday. Also Disney and ESPN are doing much better this decade than their worried little India doobies of a decade back, esp as Pizza and China surge
3. Reorganise India's infrastructure priorities, find time to review M&M and Unilever (Despite a fundamental change in the fortunes of these two companies from directed strategy, they get good results and attention on a tough down day only, talk about predilections)
4. Teach other knowledgable friends - Who being optimistic on India esp during MSCI re organisation will be full of 'know all stuff' you can bear down on with gloating dripping from your eyes and mouth dfor weeks on end..(like the savoures you cooked for Diwali but did not last)
5. Figure out the Economic Indices: Wierd Inflation and IIP volatility, not to mention the staggering deficits not every month but every other month, the winning margins of a UPA government motion in parliament, the no. of public losses Anna is unable tyo bear and other ..Most of the economic ones we have dissected and detailesd over the last three years here
6. Tell everyone to "Take a virtual dive": Right now is the best time to start on somehing you have never done before..In the AEs (RBI term for US and Europe - Advanced Economies, the latter have become cabndidates for REMs now - Re emerging Markets) they have even stopped asking people to start blogging, it's so passe. You could take a dive into a shopping all too, a good crowd as always
7. Ask people to figure out the probabilities of a recession in India: No one will put a blame at your door now that India is going to get tougher in the next2 years and who knows your chances of a recession in India may have just improved from 1 in a 1000 to 1 in a 100
8. Review your family's eating and drinking habits: Especially those zombies and moose heads who are still stuckj in your head and inner year without turning you into aschizophrenic, tring to imagine themselves as a fund manager
9. Pay attention to India's Defence budget we are getting everything we need even if so late and even though China's spin counts in the media we don't
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