With credit picking up only in end September, the IIP figures for September trolled to an unimaginable 1.9% with consumer non durables reporting a -1.5% contraction(growth) from a 6% growth of last September and mining reported contraction of -5.5% The base effect and nature of bulk orders etc played truant with Capital Goods at -6.8% down over 1020 basis points from 3.8% growth in August.

Exports in October grew 36% only but will not limit bounce in IIP next month(October) Basic Goods grew at an expected 3.5% agst 4.5% in August while intermediate goods scored a low 1.5%. Consumer Goods grew 6% while Consumer Durables managed to grow at 8.7% though against a14% score in September 2010

MarkiT HSBC had reported a good tracon in the PMI figures at 5 with even Services PMI falling but staying above 50. The August IIP was 4.1% but observers had expected a jump in Utilities / even manufacturing numbers to a 4% IIP rate as per PMI indications and leading indicators tracked. Exports growth has slowed in October but remains a large $320 bln run rate to March while the trade deficit governed by the jump in Oil imports to a deficit of $19.9bln for the month

Infra output reported growth at 2.3%in the month September manufacturing PMI was India's lowest at 50.3 PMI growth in October points to IIP recovering again in October with a good jump again in Capital goods..(no one likes the Capital goods series anymrore. one wonders if another redesign is planned) 

Posted via email from The India Investment Post