Foreign Banks in India: European Banks deleveraging in Asia Part II
Wednesday, December 14, 2011
According to the news flow, borrowing costs across Asia have risen upto 50%, that' is a sizable loss on balance sheets too where Asian swaps would have been incomplete rings and with this situation of freeze in financing however expected, those betting on Asia's grwth despite the picture of the slowdown ( not when you considered Asia in subdued growth but when you - and many did - bet on contrarian growth or that the globe did not matter )
There is no denying however that Asia will still grow at 4% and Central Asia & Africa as a region would grow albeit at its speculative trade/underdeveloped paradigm rate which was Europe's version of an Emerging market European banks have to exit faster though if they want to be not caught in the flurry of exits. TThey will not get a penny's worth in 3 months if deleveraging continues. Expecting banking assets to be illiquid is a readjustment that will cause such reactions in the market esp with Asian banks already suffering at the hands of repo financed Europe for a decade in Swaps and derivative contracts.
In India, the costs have risen on par despite the strong ECB performance till October by the sheer drop in the rupee not the whole 20% but the one from 50 - 55 ( 54.50 today) a further 10% even as only 3-4 FCCB borrowers are out of the race. Opacity in news flows continues to trouble those with exits firmly completed though, and that is the raison d- etre of having a TV channel to shout from as the index takes the wrong ones to 45 despite R Power, Welspun , Orchid and a couple of others having exited the Dollar debt that was to be a pain and / or matched with their Export inflows
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