RBI purchases 'ominous' to another 9% bout
Friday, December 2, 2011
Though a late market rally on Friday has taken away the gleam of an easy short for Monday, shortcoverin gin the last hour may also add to those planning to cap the trading range with a few swots with the bat.
In bonds however, the easin gof yields to 8.75% is not so certain either as RBI's bond buying program was an even closer 8.69% in yield in the buying of nearly $1.5 bln yesterday. RBI rates are 1% lower by channel defined even though RBI charges a 50 bp spread on its MSP sales in the middle of the channel. the yields are closer to last weeks sales Auction by RBI which were at 8.94% and so the yields may move back to that near 9% mark again before the Rupee tops out.
Smart rally in the rupee though, again speedingup the trend to a big spike, leaving you with less doubt that it will return to lower marks sooner than later. consolidation above 51.50 levels near 51 would help people believing the rupee lost mire than it deserved. Remittancees likely to be heavier through 2012 were heavier only in geographies like MENA from our labor exports and not the managerial variety yet ( if it can be distinguished)
Inflation cannot get better, however China actually got it improved to 4.5% before it eased rates and put the brakes off, risk on stride into the Economy, lastiung till December after throttling started in June itself.
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