Happy Thursdays! India's Asia story a goner..
Thursday, February 9, 2012
Though the Nifty hit 5400 and many of us from Global MBA schools have managed to hang on to senior jobs in Global 500 corporations, India's own growth stroy as a leading light in Asia is much more subdued and most would say lost except that whatever one does , India will be the no. 3 Economy behind the China and the US inc. balance sheeets in GDP and in young working population, it now enjoys and advantage to grow its GDP to the 7% 'sing song rate' and higher on average, jumping in the boom years.
Our banking superstructure is however hardly $2 tln, Foreign banks contributing hardly 10% in market share, Indian CDS still unlisted in globally liquid markets and India's Iranian connection with $12 bln in purchases or 12% of our requirmement pauid in rupees , still a diplomatic thorn in the side of the US after being virtually ignored on Foreign policy. Whither from here and all that, markets are good enough to get the Capital back into Capital goods and we should get about our infrastructure and welfare spending for the next 5 years, even head in the sand would not matter as we reap the "dividend" of this laid back super growth.
Also, Indonesia is catching up and we are not a major partner in Asia or Africa. . China has military intentions. We are not very social in the world of social media and in jumping opportunities on our neighbours, London's looking like a crown of thorns, Europe lost to the world for a few years and the US has apparently realised it is not very good in global businesses, it;s Financial sector pulling out of everywhere except the US itself. just a thought..
BTW, interesting tidbits, 5 metro projects together bought insurance worth INR 700 bln for INR 3 bln in premium income for the GICs, CTS sales add to the US GDP ( and it's good someone does that, being treated as cost for so much manpower really sucks) and Credit Suisse' $1 Tln balance sheet is not rid of all the ooze yet, this year ending with a $670 mln loss and $3 bln in bonuses from 5, ever wonder why?
The MCX promoter war continues with their options sold to trading members on the exchange and yet with a call option for the promoters to buy back!! USE also has 49.75% stake from trading members, rather a gentlemen's club and the road to Asia for FIIs is still thru the ubiquitous forex trade, the kind we have almost closed off with just $300 bln inr eserves, a rising import bill at least would have been taken care off if there was the free trade in currency, but then we do not want to lose our safety and swap it for the currency volatility of the banana republics, the tiger economies and the big brother bears from Russia and Brazil..we are happy with half a dozen indonesia deals and half a dozen in Africa?
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