The India Inflation Report ( January 2012)
Tuesday, February 14, 2012
Inflation fell to 6.55% for the month even as fuel inflation rules the waves at 14.21% and the RBI governor chose the opportune time to connect with Indian business thinkers on the need to rein in fiscal policy and the challenges facing inflation politically correctly.
The Bad Loan conference was a good piece of advice too, India not affected by the European Deleveraging but indian investors liking the look of the prices of Oil only to see the whole thing come unstuck as domestic fdemand in bank loans (retail) has already dropped to low double digits in the festival quarter reports, the December data published in livemint today.
The year end forecast may well be maintained only be the base effect on vegetables and select cereals and pulses that jolted the nation in 2010 and 2011 and the ride down in manufacturing (food and non food primary inflation) Core inflation 6.7%
Citi colleagues discovered the time to ascribve the unease around low inflation to "Structural factors" which they are while they lost the Citi Private Wealth management team with Abhinav Taparia to another raid by IIFL for its own ( achcha mauka lage kabhi to rummy hoti hai)
RBI's inflation expectations survey has shown a never before unanimity in endorsing that prices will rise further from here, 77% saying they expect prices to rise by more than the current rate.
We could have followed up on bancassurance' new face and many other interesting non NPAs on the India strategy firmament but right now trying to stay on the Treadmill...
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