The Rupee finally rid itself of its obstinacy as the market thru out some of the smaller shorts like me out before pulling down to 55.71 and the equities pulled up apparently on the news of 52.9 soemhow a surprise to this market though very obvious from the trends including the downbeat 6 months of 2012 till date. Backlogs contracted while employment was positive in the latest Manufacturing PMI readings. Still the index should enegender more positivity and continuing flows into the Indian market

Shoppers Stop reported a good turnover as did Westside and StarBazaar owners Trent Ltd. Shoppers stop reported INR5B inquarterly retail POS sales of its INR7.64 B turover while Trent reported INR  2B in Sales > Sales at both grew just below 20% Profits ere muted at Shoppers stop for its lower margin retail pos sales but sales grew on new store openings as same store sales were up just 1% including the new chains Hypoercity (food and groceries) and Mothercare, MAC(fashion) and Crossword.

Nifty is ruling at 5230

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I am tempted to say buy the Banknifty, but it is not so cosy yet and that is about the only trading opportunity. My alternative is to stay with ICICIBANK, YESBANK and HDFCBANK today and ofcourse SBI might have some miles left to come back to respectable levels. Axis will catch only on a breakout as it has snuggled up to cosy 1040 levels.

Meanwhile the Rupee has used the low interest trading at VIX of 16 to crane up its stable levels to above 55.5 while the cranking going down is as weak as RBI is interested in buying Rupee which it cannot. Lack of OMOs for example have already been flagged by Stanchart after SLR was cut and European bank cash inflows were unable to get the currency trading down to respectable 54/55 levels though it virtually failed without intervention in the free move beyond 56 yesterday and in fact the entire week of the new series

SBI is last of the high NPA banking projects to report in Q2 and then we can get back to completing our research piece on the PSU bank outlook. New political champions are in North Block as well and one should think NBFCs are not overbought yet, your choice of poison. 

IDBI proved great results are possible and infrastructure of a new age can be maintained as its alumnus now rides the Deutsche Bank Asia Pacific region's growing business but none of these make trades. Positionally Mindtree and Hexaware are back at good buying levels with the magical survival instincts of a midcap without a Sales and Marketing force in the ranks continuingas the attraction of India's outsourcing industry

I like KOTAK and MANAPPURAM finance and thus BFUtilities which may not go Infra way as it is a JPMorgan PE investment (JPM exited recently) 

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The Bond markets are leading the currency on to 55.95 in the August series, markets smelling a mid correction 56 level for the USD Rupee. Market commentators are well p[laced to finally get away with just platitudes and big canvas statements which the government cannot get away wihth as Infra needs a lot of attention and agri may dip below swhile subsidies stay latched on. 

The continuation of the forthright refusal from RBI did not have any other alternatives open but the markets continue to treat post policy market commentary like the holy grail as most of the good results of the last to three weeks are now forgotten and the GDP data coming next will not be very rosy and the rosy PMI not get much audience esp as EEFC credit has been restored for Exporters wanting to go long on the Dollar , the Central Bank assuming here that the satta pressure on the Rupee has gone away. Stanchart reports tomorrow with double digit growth in Asia from Non In dia territories including Malaysia and China and even Hongkong as Rupee fall and decreasing Wealthmanagement income in India will be highlighted.

Deccan Chronicle is seeing a winding up petition from IFCI itself facing a virtual winding up petition and staying on despite negative real net worth. Recovery income is likely to fatten income of surviving PSU banks esp those reporting Monday but one wonders if IOB and Syndicate can really compete with even Corporation Bank let alone BOB and Allahabad Bank that produced 20% profit growth yesterday

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As we mentioned, the markets had decided for the bank last week itself and while it was clear the rate cut was not recommended the market is in position to react unfavorably letting commentary focus on  "hawkishness" of the policy (just listen  to LV on TV18 carrying on live from the dog and pony show) which is unlikely its tone. 

Banknifty is down 100, supports for the Rupee sunk in the melee and Nifty don 20 points. SLR has been cut 1% finally after 3 years of dilly dallying. that means with 23% SLR and 4% CRR banks now need only 27% in Liquid government deposits and with borrowing from the government already reducing the liquidity will improve albeit slowly as these are sticky deposits. India's GDP  growth is likely to come below 6.5% and inflation is high according to the policy review.

I am wondering if my short Dollar position will stay in the green in these conditions against the Rupee with markets using every such excuse for running it down and are virtually uncontested in that. The RBI reference rate to the Dollar will move up today. 

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Policy statements engender a peculiar and steep reaction yet in the indian Financial markets but for a change the Dollar market is not buying the dollar mercilessly on rumors from the coming rate decision and bad review reported yesterday while equities are holding on to most of yesterday's gains at 5200 given that they were likely  to run out of momentum in another 50 points and somehow that is sufficing for response. The rupee should touch 55.2 or 54.9 levels before going back and testing upper limits and esp if some political and FDI decisions are pout into the news nmills ahead of next week's event close out dates. 

Banks remain buys, mid cap It incl Hexaware and MindTree are out of hack with market expectations as are ex bonus winners like Jyothy labs. Maruti and Biocon should have been in the bull queue but the dead volatility around 16 has probably worried markets enough. Bharti's capital raising is not a good sign for its stock though I do not know idf its 'market makers are planning a bump like other mega IPO candidates before the dullness sinks in. It would be unlikely. IDFC and JPASSOCIATES remain good trading picks at current prices event after the jump yesterday

GAIL, BOB and SpiceJet remain good picks. I have no opinion on Muthoot, Manappuram and M&M Finance but they have made the shortlist. Bajaj Finance too may look at being rerated upwards at more houses next year but I am still contemplating it. CIPLA reports results and thats a ho - hum, SUN Pharma was looking like a quality stock and people need frequent switching in this sector's picks incl yesterday's news on thtat drug introduction in Europe which wahacks the rreturns into a future cloud in one hit. 

Despite its active M&A which is the reason it remains large cap even with low yielding account wins vis a vis TCS, HCL Tech is close to topping off I'd say the early start for shorts this time.

SBI is good for a run up, YES BANK is still up, and HDFCBANK has been quite the hole week so it will take the starting blocks in this relay sprint.

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The Rupee had a strange outing yesterday but given the state of the Economy as delivered by the RBI's quarterly Economic and monetary review and the non event credit policy around 11 AM, the currency markets may still start off the equity recovery on the wrong note in the pre open moments from now. 

It is likely however that the Rupee test the Dollar fully today and retraces to as close to 54 levels between today and tomorrow before more deleterious impact of the flip side stroy playing on from mid 2010 works its way into an increasing hit from resurgent crude and an "unattended CAD" as the markets seem to be alleging after the changes at the top and our new President taking oath. 

However, select bank stocks that reported near expiry apart, the Banknifty has recovered from its bluesy year despite cannonical references from the new look S&P trying to stay afloat with proactiveness in ratings not discernably different from petty bickering and rumormongering wihthj politicos and marketmakers from Europe to Americas to good old India it has reveled in ignoring. the refreeing against SS comes to mind? I would not hazard a guess but I think the media will like to pursue the connotations at leisure than make an issue of it. 

The stocks are steady far and wide but i have hardly a mile before I go skinny dipping again as markets buoyant indeed look to retrace from 5250 or 5300 levels having corrected mispricing in banks and having allowed a mild infra recovery. 

However, globally only great business models and arbitrageurs are recovering earnings forecasts and now most of the good ones are done in India also. HSBC was a good result hammered for the fines facing the indutry but likely to be soon rewarded for its double digit RoE for example, Indian scrips like ICICIBANK and IDFC following. 

Cipla results come in today. BOB apparently (BofA ML ) had good reason for reporting squeezed up profits this quarter and is good to go. It could have been a good day kind ofvibe in the morning or afternoon could really spoil it, huh!

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Markets are ruling at almost never before kin of euphoria at 5180 rising 80 points after expiry on Thursday pushed out the sails. The repopulating of the Active board of stocks on the exchanges threw up a finer concentration of banks on Friday and then today when remaining PSU banks like Allahabad Bank and BOB, OBC and even Syndicate Bank profits were faster, higher and stronger for India Inc which went back on the weekend with 15% Sales increase and 8% profit increase on year (yoy) among reporting companies

The Dollar taking the time to run at every gap in the rally on the NSE now at 55.55 in Spot and much hiugher in the August series premium but not an easy winning trade for thos ebuying the rupee at its near bottom. Credit Policy is likely to be seen with even chances of a rate cut/CRR cut tomorrow and that coupled with its being a recovery rally means tomorrow could be 2 parts cataclysmincal and1 part optimistic not unlike today markets which are 2 parts hope and the third part already over cataclysm in the July series

OBC Q1 Gross NPAs are down to below 3% and its the only one apart from BOB to plot the downward trajectory of NPLs expected to begin from the next quarter..Gross NPAs are now as low as INR 34 B

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New REsults ,from these three banks showed Profit growth in the public enterprises not at risjk and a likely end to the increasing NPAs at 2% of Net NPAs for the Sector, which would be a big positive. CAR will dip from 12% to newer 9% levels under the new RBI mandated risk weighted structure

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just got washed out here ..an lost the hour's work. Canara Bank profits of 7.75 B, Union Bank profits of 5.12 B and Central Bank of India profits of INR 3.36 B missed estimates. Canara Bank NIM is just 2.4%, Union Bank missed earnings by 30% and both carry NII of INR 18 B and in UBI case EPS is 9.8 on assets of 1.74T and 2.2Tln. Central Bank of India Loan assets are lower at 1.47 Tln despite deposits of INR 1.96 T whicle Canara Bank deposits are INR3.34 T and Advances on par with ICICI And PNB at INR 2.25Tln All three constituents of the Bank Nifty deserve to be booted out

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The sector reported in unison on Friday and bad debts rose to an average of 3-4% at most banks that reported. However, first the two profitable ones that improved results, then prioritising the big ones BOB and PNB that have sizable profitability and asset advantages and then the rash of CBI, UBI and others. Global Capex slowdown will continue to affect the INR 6T in Power sector Loans (2010) which have already come to INR 4Tln in 2011 and are likely going downanother 25% 

Uma Maheshwari and Nutan of CRISIL/S&P had a ok denoument of their cry wolf and as MOS suggested this could well be the last reported increases in NPLs but then I don't know what MOS is saying right now.  

Dena Bank

Dena Bank reported an NII of INR 612.24 Crs or INR 6.12 B, comparable to some of our food majors like Jubilant Foods (QSR) who reported INR 3.14 B selling pies in the same. Other income was characteristically subdued even at this profitable Mumbai based regional PSE at INR 1.41B

Jubilant's net Profit margin was just 10% as Dunkin' Donuts weighed in though the Pizza brand has 489 stores of its own. Dena's operating profits of INR 4.57B or 60% and Net of INR 2.39 B or 31% underline the stable underlying growth in even public sector units though the preponderence of these inefficient beachheads of government donated welfare and 60s nationalisation dominating the Bank Nifty may still not be defensible

This bank counts 1% Net NPAs and 1.8% Gross NPAs. It counts 80% of its income from Treasury and Corporate thoughin this case Treasury independently contributes 28% of that combined income and a slightly better proportion in profits

The Bank has 0.91 Tln or 45% the size of an ICICI Bank. EPS 6.82 down yoy

Karnataka Bank

KTKBANK reported just INR2.26 B in Net Interest income and INR 0.91 B Other Income and a Net Profit of INR 0.83 Bln or 83 Crores on an asset book of 317B (FY2011)   Net NPAs even at the profitable unit are already 2% and Gross NPAs 3.31%

Treasury and Corporate (Lending and Bills) equally split the non retail business of 67%

EPS of 4.43 up sequentially from 4.42 and up 67% yoy

The Bank counts deposits of INR275B and Advances of 175 B last available for March 2011 The bank's private sector advances do not count agricultural loans. Total Assets of INR 317B would be assumed to have grown only in single digits

Punjab National Bank

Profits grew hardly in double digits below 15% for the megalith with INR 2.66Tln in non food loan assets that beats ICICI in loan assets by 20% and INR 6.7T in  "business mix" or balance sheet assets with Deposits of INR3.85 T and Loan assets of INR 4.59T, Credit and assets having grown 20% 

NII is up a shade under 20% at INR3.7B and Other Income stable at INR1.2B, Net Profits growing 12% to INR1.25B Provisions grew from INR566Crs to INR900 Crores or INR16B incl Tax assets

Fee based Income is INR 549 Crores or 5.49 B and Net Interest margin despite a dip continues at 3.7%  ahead of all others the drop in NIMs having hit the third consequent quarter, still supersized from other competitors , the best NIMs being near 3.5% The Cost of funds for the bank is below 6% and Credit Deposit Ratio 77% to 76.4% in the current quarter. CASA is non standard at 35%

The banks retail assets are barely 10% of its loan portfolio, Power and Telco 8 and 2.6% an dthe bank holds INR 1.2T in investments This quarter's restructured assets are just 5% of its total INR255B

The bank should hurt those going short at current levels

Bank of Baroda

Reports results today

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One feels the rise in Power NBFCs has led the charge in Infrastructure todayin the recovery from the bottom and 5150 might well stay around for a fe days as non eof the Infra jumps have hurt their average marks much in today's rise and as their rise is more than capped IDFC alone ill be unable to lead the industry out of the woods. The markets ill return to inspect the others especially PSU banks soon. As of now I will look at PSU bank data but at these levels I am not very hopeful of identifying the operator favored short. 

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Regardless of HDFC's 20% higher profits the Consolidated income of INR12.75B, the markets remain topped off and likely candidates while the rupee wants to correct to the Dollar to 54 levels before trying a jump, leaving markets pushing for an upside.

However, my earnings capacity and the trade in the Rupee Dollar have been hit adversely as I get targeted in the ring to sort out their confusion on the irection of how to get out of a dollar positive trade because of the weak markets.  

Marti's scores in Q2 were bad but more than results actions in Manesar and its swift rebirth in Gujarata this time are going to have positive ticks on the price sooner than later. BIOCON and healthcare upside has definitely been ;lost excep t for one shadow snook with the telco stocks. The IT jump is illusory but if you hold them, it is good for you

Someone did say PSU bank shorts, but if you try CBI or even UBI they may be climbing back today.

Snatch and Jerk (Intraday) therefore offers few available opportunities left ont he shelf. ICICI BANK And IDFC start trending down when the exodus becomes clear in the coming weeks esp after the GDP data.

No need to add positions now when you can get them cheap later BOB and PNB should infact come back into the green and rise sooner than later. Indusind is not a good pick. Yes Bank holds.

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Someone did say PSU bank shorts, but if you try CBI or even UBI they may be climbing back today. Snatch and Jerk therefore offers few available opportunities left ont he shelf. ICICI BANK And IDFC start trending down when the exodus becomes clear in the coming weeks esp after the GDP data. No need to add positions now when you can get them cheap later BOB and PNB should infact come back into the green and rise sooner than later. Indusind is not a good pick. Yes Bank holds.

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Though some would still recommend that the Central bank wait till December (RBS) and jump in with another 50 bp cut, I would think too many jumps would not be our conservative bank's cuppa tea in the morning on tuesday.

Banks are running down yields in the Fixed Income market and as long as credit markets are buoyant the increasing demand for fixed income/funding will not depend per se on the RBI's announcing the rate cut this Tuesday.

However, the structural changes required in tracking core inflation/ consumer inflation and fiscal reform need not become a barrier for RBI to take that decision. In light of the recent pick up in manufacturing and consumer demand the RBI may grant the 25 bp rate cut leaving a 10-20% probability that the bank wait for more ribust signs of such growth. 

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The bank's increased restructuring and long pain in retail advances hich are still a majority of its portfolio still did not stop its growth, finally coming ahead of the others despite taking the longer route after the Kamath bloodbath decade in retail aggressiveness. Net NPAs are down to 0.71% continuing the downward NPL trajectory and a CAR of 18.5%  the Profits easily grew ell over the 30% mark

PAT is up to INR 18.15B increasing sequentially with NII up from INR27.1 B in December and 29 B in March Wires are as usual too early to know

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The bank's increased restructuring and long pain in retail advances hich are still a majority of its portfolio still did not stop its growth, finally coming ahead of the others despite taking the longer route after the Kamath bloodbath decade in retail aggressiveness. Net NPAs are down to 0.71% continuing the downward NPL trajectory and a CAR of 18.5%  the Profits easily grew ell over the 30% mark

PAT is up to INR 18.15B increasing sequentially with NII up from INR27.1 B in December and 29 B in March Wires are as usual too early to know

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A late PND thrust unable to quench NPLs it seems hit NPAs to INR99BLN and PRovisions suddenly looking inadequate at INR10 B while in bigger pSU banks the Net 1.38% of NPls may not be a defensible bulge for the otherwise medal winner who has been ahead on recent growth and profit margins run thru loer cost of deposits. 

The fundamentals of the bank I would still aver by, but hthe bank should have a s usual given its due warning , leaving me ith worries the bank itself des not know the road ahead for the same even as others have reached the end of the trajectory

Indian CAR is still a high 12.63% unlike at global no gooders like Citi and Bank of America, raor thin at less than 8% on Tier I Common

The bank is holding after the massacre and ICICI Bank results are awaited. 

Th eSensex is back battling for 17000 levels , an easy win stabilising the mood for tomorrow but 5150 looking good enough for blind shorts to test the market even in otheise good results driven scrips. ITC for example should have been marking out a new place in the clouds and that its above its recent highs ould suddenly be a bigger weakness for the scrip. 

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Again to make things easy for you to follow, we'd say TV18 and SS are bang on target saying the market is directionless after the 100 point jump, and having already bneaten a few more bankruptcies last yesterday, the markets may be feeling more adventurous about testing marks entering buying right now. Not very confidence engendering, thusly, becomes the ay to explain a quick rally in turn which destroys fiurther rally but still India remains with the other BRICs most undervalued nations and ne liquidity is not very far away if tehe Euro is indeed to be saved. some might think INR53000 crs from FIIs is about all we will get but Fund inflos can be mean to calculators when they start pouring despite interest in EM bonds which do not have enough floating around anyway and allocation measures would still cap any new fund sizes esp after infra funds have failed to take off in investor perception.

Not many are left without doubt that 15 year projects will indeed pay after 15 years but that also does not hide every one in to projects which are operating much below traffic and revenue estimates for their initial years. So we know what has to be done and that is in current and future project reports in this sector. Similarily having the agenda in other sectors  also means that the traders should twiddle thumbs only. For myself, i am going to be staying away till I recover my base capital from this portfolio again Trading wise, anyone not buying banks right now would not be able to see the woods for the trees and anyone ithout infra and consumption and healthcare investments will have to be very careful about where he wakes up , be it thru Mutual Funds or Hedge funds or private equity. 

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In a thoroughly disgraceful show by the markets, the markets took apart the indices near their bottom on a selected PSU bank throw down strategy after having clearly identified all the winners having established a bull market and trying to be instead sudddenly seen saying but I don';t understand this index, the index being banknifty ofcoure and the markets seemed to comply because every such short seller no one thought his buying was needed on this day of expiry. 

For me, I am disgusted with the show of skunkworks and really do not think these market players are the ones who are going to get others to feel confident about the Indian markets or story which is exactly what it is and the markets right now seem to be increasingly becoming a naxal zone..and rreally if that someone thinks is representaative of a society I am aghast. 

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The markets are ready for a big bounce in August starting immediately after expiry. Banks are especially ready for a jump . However for that dangerous last double dip that may take indices to 5050 before the rise begins I only suggest cash equities and a small ait for options premiums on the indices to correct. Cash purchases are important or it mauy not work for the indices. The morning sugeestions hold for a buy. SBI and Axis and HDFCBank are all good candidates for a correctionand a jump thus making it a razor's edge to start.

Reliance infra has bottoms out at near 480, IDFC is good for big pickings and JP Associates as well when the uptrend starts for the bigger rally from after expiry. 

ING and INDUSIND will come in late on Day 3 of any rally. An earlier start may be possible for beaten down PSU banks though i am not game for Canara Bank or even the well performing Karnataka Bank, action returing to PNB BOB and the big ones

the ITC beat and the YESBANK beat to new targets near 300 and 400 are likely to be the new kings of a rally at this point even as Jubilant pushes in results into a nook ith perfectly ok growth but having browbeaten market expectations with the upward hilt.

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Apart from the dead cat bounce today, there is hardly likelty to be any moves in the market today. You should focus on exiting out when Banknifty closes likely above 10300 and BANKNIFTY 10300 PE should be completely in the black if you have sold the same

The Dollar would have hurt as the expiry was again used to declare a dead heat in the worst possible way the dollar going to 56.7 and crashing to below 56 on the open itself minutes ago. However the Rupee strength this time may last a fe days as the new series starts with buying

Oil , copper and Nickel are definitely inviting short trades till 4900, 412 and similar track onNickel

The problem with wishlists will be more obvious in tmarkets this time starting with the sugar stocks, then the auto stock and more. The Banks will continue to be grand prix inners and Heathcare and consumer good picks. 

I am still looking for buying in LICHSGFIN and ORCHID to resume from 236 and 112 respectively and I think ICICI BANK will hit 4 figures and YES BANK cross 400

Lupin, STAR (Stride Arcolabs) and SUNPHARMA remain STRONG BUYS in Pharma/Healthcare

Fixed Income yields are also down in time. 

I had just hoped for the Dollar to start today from 56.3 but it has already whipped off and strained below 56 so trade is unlikely to be facilitated in the currency except for RBI registered exporters and importers, which is sad for the currency trading segment in the NSE or the MCX trading cells. 

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CASA has improved to 16.3% though the target remains much higher near 30% for a good score, 

Even as year on year growth was 34% just on Gross Interest Income to INR18.86B even sequentially the bank grew from a total of INR17.86 in Gross Interest Income and Net Prfits at INR 2.90 Bln a sequential growth of 6% from March and well above the 305 growth watermark

 (Topline including fees and other income) Net income is mostly the same rate of growth at INR7.6B a sequential growth of 8% and Other Income under 3 B still sequentially larger by 10% The Bank does not break down other income into Fee income and other as Indusind has started doing recently Net NPAs are yet only 0.06% 

LIC Housing NIMs declined to 2.18% but Yes Bank was still higher 2.8% Yes Bank CASA improvements would bring NIMs to ileading industry banks as its Asset base also grows

YESBANK has increased its Balance Sheet 37% on year

Commercial and Branch banking account for 38% of the Portfolio and Tier I CAR has improved to 9.7% The bank may seem to be living a charmed life on the edge from some margin data but a healthy INR300 crore of fees could now include a healthy part from retail banking fees and other banks in the leaguie like INdusind and ING Vysya have faltered in picking up the growth while YES has been increasing its balance sheet better without a credit card portfolio

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[[posterous-content:pid___0]]CASA has improved to 16.3% though the target remains much higher near 30% for a good score, 

Even as year on year growth was 34% just on Gross Interest Income to INR18.86B even sequentially the bank grew from a total of INR17.86 in Gross Interest Income and Net Prfits at INR 2.90 Bln a sequential growth of 6% from March and well above the 305 growth watermark

 (Topline including fees and other income) Net income is mostly the same rate of growth at INR7.6B a sequential growth of 8% and Other Income under 3 B still sequentially larger by 10% The Bank does not break down other income into Fee income and other as Indusind has started doing recently Net NPAs are yet only 0.06% 

LIC Housing NIMs declined to 2.18% but Yes Bank was still higher 2.8% Yes Bank CASA improvements would bring NIMs to ileading industry banks as its Asset base also grows

YESBANK has increased its Balance Sheet 37% on year

Commercial and Branch banking account for 38% of the Portfolio and Tier I CAR has improved to 9.7% The bank may seem to be living a charmed life on the edge from some margin data but a healthy INR300 crore of fees could now include a healthy part from retail banking fees and other banks in the leaguie like INdusind and ING Vysya have faltered in picking up the growth while YES has been increasing its balance sheet better without a credit card portfolio

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CASA has improved to 16.3% thought he target remains much higher near 30% for a good score, 

Even as year on year growth was 34% just on Gross Interest Income to INR18.86B even sequentially the bank grew from a total of INR17.86 in Gross Interest Income and Net Prfits at INR 2.90 Bln a sequential growth of 6% from March and well above the 305 growth watermark

 (Topline including fees and other income) Net income is mostly the same rate of growth at INR7.6B a sequential growth of 8% and Other Income under 3 B still sequentially larger by 10% The Bank does not break down other income into Fee income and other as Indusind has started doing recently Net NPAs are yet only 0.06% 

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The ride to the INR-USD at 57 is likely on a day before expiry and I am not so sure the shorts are going to enter on the Dollar. However it seems a largely emotional run and no buying in the Dollars since morning. Buying can even skip the day or come in late and a lot of other witing around may scupper that deal as most Asian coins have discovered a stronger future in trade and are nicely banded and tradin at the strong end of their new range bounded on the other end by the May loosies. 

The Dollar index rising further means a weakness in Oil and even Gold does not trade weaker in Asia, esp India so the currencies wantonly riding it again is a remote enough possibility but not a trade

That's a conversation you will never get from a pay check bound analyst

In stocks, I am tempted to buy BANKNIFTY and the market has already ringed its epxpectations as it otherwise will be bloodshed at expiry if you bought or sold more puts to expiry and the Dollar came out scaring the currencies into a South South dialogue to 57,58, 59 and the hour rings .

Buying in August will be impossible with the series time decay premium not liking any cliffs to correct for real disjointed expectations to the next month series.

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Markets are swinging wildly in preopen looking for unlikely buyers a day before expiry as they do not want to encourage buying right now and do not have much of a further bottom to make. It starts though at 5120 and unable to make much headway except at the close. ABAN, BAJAJ HOLDINGS, FORTIS HEALTHCARE, JETAIRWAYS, ONMOBILE, ORCHID and many others were include in 51 stocks to be discontinued on F&O . They should be stable till September

Diesel prices are  going down in 11 states after some changes in the market structure in distribution before any price hike in August after theVice presidential polls HCL Tech, unhedged has as expected reported a 300bp expansion in margin after a long time and should not go much further from the 511 opening till 530 for employees to sell into. MidCAp ti making a late rush on the news

ING and YES Bank report today.

In other news Pharma FDI got tweaked again (Investments till 49% in an Indian Co thru FIPB) and various other non events

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Banknifty's not so new found love for numbers and edge of the seat targets for its club of 12 banks caused some consternation to the bank index and to Banknifty in the afternoon with Canaraa Bank reporting only INR775 crores in profits but the last growing NPAsNet NPAs above 2% for Caanara Baank and SBBJ half an hour ago still worring participants though it was the last of the NPA recognition rush and provision coverage at both is good to great above 90% of non performing/ dubious loans

Tata Global enjoyed a good pop on 153 rores in profits after finance charges from 98 crores as the unit gets ready top roll out Starbucks to a coffee happy indian diletantte hether in Delhi and Mumbai or in Bangalore

Banknifty though has a new religion of probably being shorn of the sloth of July as market sentiment has distinctly improved after earlier misinformed reports of Sales growth stunted or profit stunted from the first 114 reporting companies. Misinformed in the selection of the universe, one can see a distinct trend of good candidates managing a good result and that has also mean adding confidence and esp in the Banknifty, ready to lead the charge and even expiry , depending on ho things look at every instant could keep moving to respectable elvels as shorts have to exit this market (totally tech adds: " and sell puts till expiry instead...")

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Short WIPRO, 

Buy ICICIBANK

BUY HINDUNILVR

Do not buy MCX and FT in the new series 

Sell puts to expiry, however both 5100 and 5200 calls re all sold to death already an dsold PUTs have meat only in 5200 and 5300 series wwhich will need to have a debit on expory\\iry with a net profit of 4-5k for 2 lots

L&T is a strange fall but Wipro is down 5% Oil price hike was expected after India's crude basket cost increased to $103. Crude has since come down from $108 to $105. The price hikes could be metered to updated Petrol basket data from here(without due announcement as usual) . and the price action on the stocks is tired

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Buy ZEE ENTERTAINMENT and AXISBANK ICICIBANK ould be a bigger bang and SBI also works if you are willing to hold

Monday's global open could at least set a stage for a backdraft till 5160-70 for the expiry late in the weak to be at reasonable levels after having failed to stick to 5350. Policy situation has turned around and more expectations have been calendarised apparently 

Coal India fast tracking has been denied and is likely to reced to 351 at most. Powergrida nd REC continue to be strong into the new series. IDEA seems fairly priced though it enjoyed great results

INGVysya will report profit growth but i do not think any thing exceptional was required from the bank in earnings report this quarter so it should work for  apop instead of a sell on news

Tata Global reported a growth in margins above the 30% watermark at 56% to 156Cros after finance costs but even excl extraordinary items, the net proftis were almost steady at INR77 crores from INR72 crores Net Sales were up 20% No trades on result scrips even otherwise

However we do not see a bull trade in Dr Reddy either as SS seems to suggest, so the upside on the Nifty avoiding the banks is highly unlikely today.

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Markets are likely to hold on to th 5100 levels except for a small weak dip as the Dollar opens to 56.14 on the July series and dropping like nine pins on the pre open session. Great earnings led by unilever India are unlikely to be derailed by a 6.6% rise in Net Profit at Wipro being below estimates. 

The rest of the week is banking high and heavy and expiry should thu survive except if there is still some fresh shorts.  Buying in individual scrips might happen for a n early start in August today and tomorrow. Reform expectations have tempered. Earnings expectation scan still lead to sittuations like for McDonalds in Monday trading as it fell after growing 3.7% on same store sales with news on a Chinese slowdown. The Chinese manufacturing PMI has recovered in the meantime to a six month high of 49.5 

Buy on AXISBANK and SBI are back though some at ETNOW are using a sell call on SBI to aid a fall based on probably the lock out at Maruti As susual Sudershan Sukhani has the inside track on my picks with ZEE Ent good results apparently

FDI in retail seems on the doorstep. Market wide position limits have been raised by three times to avoid a single market maker or market makers locking up the scrips. Qualifying criteria for new F&O listings have focussed on raising the bar on liquidity and performance

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Markets trading the banknifty range without knowing it and able to define a uncorrelated move with the Dollar every now and then, though mispricing the Dollar during pre open for the show and tell. 

If restructured assets debate is actually taken seriously then once any speculation on new FM is laid to rest the market shoul dbe able to proceed. I still like OPRCHID and ITC And I am holding on to ICICIBANK SBI and AXISBANK

I think i will go lon gon the banknifty again ( i can hear the market strains to that ) before the IBank results hopefully (Friday) ING reports in a few.

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I would suggest MARUTI for purchasing new positions in the market but the bottom is not is, this price would have no problem giving you a profit except fro short term trades I think SESA and STER_EQ disappointments are also likely reasons markets are disappointed and those switching HEROMOTO to BAJAJ in the FII fraternity and otherwise are causing serious consternation in the markets testing the last of the 5200 bulls at 5165. If the markets do not do the late afternoon "Catch that Train" the new President will indeed be greeted with all India at a standstill

Page and TV18 report today, ING and LIC Housing do the honors tomorrow with a host of others including Lupin, Pidilite and Shriram Transport Finance. Wednesday Jubilant Foods and YESBANK report th enew dominators' performance in a block of three months of not so slow consumption and for Jubilant hinterland expansion and competition. MCX India reports Thursday

ICICIBANK and Maruti could well report on the weekend though for different reasons. HSBC AMC Global CEO, Sridhar Chandrashekhar had a great India/Emerging Market story to tell on ETNOW on the weekend

Bond yields had sttayed slightly higher last week but we think this reactiveness from weak equities could pass into history with Emerging market yields headed lower and to 7.5% in india. Auctions on Friday went well for RBI again and i thought though 90 days were trending lower 8.35% was a real shocking liquidity premium. 

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Currencies are looking like the only logical link enhancing the correlation at market open as always using AM pre-open in equities to sho the pressure on the Rupee and looking to catch up with the falling nine pins Euro story this week. Still I think the trade on the Dollar Rupee remains to buy the Rupee. 

The Bank Nifty shorts are not in and ICICI BANK will hold. HDFCBANK is witnessing some unholy advice but then there is a trader ho wants to make the best money in the market. IDFC seemss to be a value buy again at 133-135 levels. I though do agree with Sudershan Sukhani that Orchid Pharma is going to catch more from here to 160 even. 

Mid Caps are getting to be the only entry point for currently featured TV analysts but that is more a stop gap than any real recommendations. Witness jubilant foods being defended for raising prices a month ago and the continuing strong technicals on that chart. GAIL, ONGC and the OMCs also remain recalcitrant to move in any direction with short bursts letting out the 20 points to keep Kotak or Infy shorts on which both should be off any minute so no trade there. 

The weak market means weak Anil Ambani scrips though and the new blockbuster pair trade that will last another week is Buy BAJAJAUTO sell HEROMOTO

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Well, I am more stuck than sitting on the fence say star analysts with TV18 and ETNOW as there are intraday picks out for shorting the banks one shorting HDFCBANK and the other shorting KOTAK

They somehow know we are long on the BANKNIFTY still looking at 10500. It seems to be the speculators turn (of the stomach, not the next to go in a monopoly board game) to say the big money has been missing in trade for too long a time and there is nothing to take it up. Wonder who else was left buying the banks here? There really isn't any other goth story in this market and when the banks are ready to go higher the market will go forward, so the shorts on HDFCBANK may not yield much i'd say. 

The street did not get too much fun on the eekend and the news flow as drier than always with the Presidential elections relegated on the ticker for "radio silence" to honor the big office and Noisy weekend barbell holding hub points of your informal networks ready for a philosophical turn after managements were targeted globally and people tried to enjoy some perverse satisfaction in China failing to keep any growth coming despite the 7.6% GDP growth with the 2000 store Strong McDonalds unlikely to grow same store sales in that country. India of course never wanted so many McDonalds' or did it!

Indonesia in a "not so unlikely" story line from Stanchart is likely to be added to the BRICS to make BRIICS by 2015 and Indian money is still desired in Africa. The Tata Power/Adani Power UMPP wants to move PPAs to a almost 80% higher per unit price and even that can reach consumers under Rs 4.50 which is well affordable so why the problem exactly in that chain from  manufacturing to distribution to payment of electricity

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The market seemd to never move throughout the 5 days of trading but is very cannily poised at the bottom with banks shaken. Yet one would like to believe that this will be a new bottom for the market because the overall correction from 5350 has been completed and tied into most fundamentals with results seasons positives. Even as analysts on the netorks are set to orrily look the nifty in the eye for the banks' not being up anymore, I would be going into the weekend long on the banknifty at 10500 mark.

It is not a leap of faith but new positions on the banknifty on Monday may miss a good 100 points on the upside.

However back to the analysis of the week in question, it alloed one to feel remiss about India Inc and hopefully tempered expectations from Policy reform as most expected a panacea from government speak to propel further gains like on a couple of nes stops on Sibal and spectrum last week shooed in. 

The week began with MCX addingequities platform licenses from the regulator and Sensex futures getting into the limelight as well. ifty currency contracts have been gaining volume in the 2012 move but as of now the currency is tick at a one feels intermediate not so lo mark of 54.9 purely for trading reasons

The Power reforms were solved adequately with Mundra expectedly left alone and SEB loans lobbed to states duly.  

Germany has already approved the Spanish bank bailout and finand will complete the exercise before markets open on Monday. There are still 45 minutes of trading left as I close out the week in the report. Healthcare and Utilities standout as powerful movers for the indices and Banks and Financials dominate especially after results were compared. The IT story was finally accepted as relegated to the second rung Media scrips and businesses survived another quarter ithout groing subscription or falling Advertising revenues and making good enough big money with Dainik Bhaskar's 43 crores and Zee News' 158 crores. Fresh investments are due. 

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It is just a proposal at this juncture but we ould be pushing as many good bankers for the provisions on standard assets to be adopted so the NPAs can be taken out of this subset of provisions and expensed off at least. As of now the proposal is still raw in its details requiring banks to keep additionl provisions including for foreign branches which are still leveraged on structured plays for each loan

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The Bank Nifty has started a new move though the bottom right now a stronger than my expected decline of 0.75% and 568 for Kotak spinning out to 10530 for the BankNIfty which is its lowest. Optimism reigns in the market and should be a good point to pick up Kotak (Short targets have been acheived at 564)  and the BANKNIFTY ( I prefer to sell BANKNIFTY PE 10800 ) 

Buying the commoldities market is an illusion, do intraday trades and exit. Should be room for a short on Copper but Gold has come up for air after  along time. Drought condition scares mean firm trends in Agricommodities as well Cotton remains dull and sowing is unlikely to increase for the crop

Crude scares are likely the reason CAIRN will go up, however the prices need not rise above  $107 unless there is absolute panic and this being the last day of the eek , late night Us trading should see the correction back.

As you can see no new strategies here or from the foreingn brokerages or other indian market experts except small picks and piecemeal profits with the markets eyeing a simple 5275 for the close of the week

SBI is a great pick at 2145, INdus ind ready for the jump, YESBANK and IDFC will follo after the index picks up the direction  

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Shock and Awe, what can one say. Markets opened deceptively lower and start from bottom of range on Friday. I think you can pick up a few Calls on the nifty and maybe not the banknifty but then banknifty is the stongest player in the series and next

MARUTI has picked up , may again be available at below 1100 Power stocks are an avoid. There is no definitive course for order backlog ridden and recession driven BHEL for new buys to 250 immediately, but after whipaws of the day it will be available at those same levels again

Today's alrternate relief sections are sharply corrected even otherwise and TCS and BHARTIAIRTEL make good picks. Buy SBI when you see a nice rounded bottom,. i think 2150 is a good start to accumulate for a positional trade

ICICIBANK may not correct further from 945

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Rangebound markets give you time to realise that those who cannot make 30% growth in Net Profits and a healthy 20% rise in Sales are unlikely to get much word of mouth or better traction in the coming years either. Witness import duties increased for Power equipment which have generated adverse reactions from Power producers and even equipment makers. Not that prices of Chinese equipment enjoyed the same price advantage after the 25% depreciation in the rupee. However, as of now there are hardly any power plants being completed either with construction slow and those with standing orders figuring out whether new import duties will apply 

Retrospectively, no, not retrospectively but then when asked to speak publicly on a subject most tend to foul up in India's Mid Cap sector. That brings us to the rough and tumble of failing print advertising models. Though with strong subsription revenues DishTv was a shoo in winner at INR 5000 M in quarterly sales, and DB and HT Media's Hindustan Media Ventures did well too. Profits at both DB and HT Media hit a 30% and 5% snag respectively because of rising costs. I would say it is good news that they can soak up such increases in costs and produce profits, but the market did not know the extent of their loss of profitability so the rangebound markets may give you better levels in all three. 

Back to the banks then, Kotak having totted up Gross NPAs to 1.4% and NIMs saddening to 4.7% now at 33% higher than the Industry highs of 3.5% among Private and Public sector banks. Anyone who can get a more than 20% credit growth in their conservative forward statements is a shoo in into any decently managed portfolio as the midday correction on sales growth to INR7.2 B definitely brings in Kotak to a short list. Net Profits of the group were INR 2824 M and I would like them to scale a mark of a 1 B in  profits every quarter so the growth in advances and the 7% campaign's impact on CASA are welcome.

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The headline was coined for yesterday's morning report

India's Presidential Elections will report by Thursday and ratings of india are likely to improve in Equity portfolios and a 5300 mark broken to the upside. Th ediesel hike is already geting half the market antsied as e face acritical 5250 barrier. Bank Nifty continues to redefine retail participation and the rerating of the indian market  almost by banks and financial services performance alone as the perrformingg privatre sector component of that industry is by and large seen as having enough traction for Corporate lending and is also not being pushed into a social role ith healthy profits and the water mark 20 Sales 30 Profit benchmark it enjoys.  SBI and PNB offer it depth and their healthy balance sheets put low any claims of underperformance in the public sector units to a large extent. 

In the meantime Dollar's lost it totally while the Nifty/Sensex are as good as dead ith hardly any moves in almost the entire three eeks since we got ourselves a new President, with today's elections smooth and a carefree Kapil Sibal still plotting thenext spectrum auction still looking for more angles to shoot that for the government. Saif's interview on NDTV about minority persecution being as acceptable as corrruption also deserves a special mention. but here exactly is the persecution / seclusion and how are they different from being poor and thus alone?

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Dollar intra day opportunists abound while Rupee opportunities lie on the table just the CERC hikes thru except for Tata Power at Mundra. REC, PFC, Powergrid ( not SEB receivables but likely prospects of relisations) gain for positional picks. 

Keeps long interest in Indian equities sterady and accumulating with a positive bias. 

DishTV and DB corp seem to have crossed the rubicon of distrust due to structural moves and expectations of the same in the industry 

Maruti will probably lose just another 50-60 bucks from 1100 before a return to better prices begins

SBIN noises on slow credit growth and rating agencies' /analysts targeting it for high NPA growth look increasingly likely to lose and that alone could decide whether Nifty will play in the bigger leagues this year and cross out of 5300

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Kotak again proved with today's results that its ins on not bothering to reinvent themselves have been playing to the old Goldman Sachs gallery and not really going anywhere on the business learning curve. Couple that with another likely two year holiday till it starts to wind down promoter stakes and it is ripe for an Ingovern/Veritas hit which its strong fundamentals can resist easily. Private Equity must be thinking of the prospects of buying this 50% promoter stake daily but seem to have no partnership basis with Uday Kotak

A true smaller range was never ever found again! 

Net Interest Income is reaching a degree of scale at INR 7.20 B and the Net NPAs are as suspected rising as it akes out of its existing customer set and splashes a little likely to recede again. One wonders if someone can really revamp that governing structure in place, each manager at his island of incompetence with the HCL GPS device in hand

NIMs are its strength at 4.7% Gross Lending income (only Interest) is up to INR 24.7 B (DJ wires)

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The third edition of the trading strategies piece usually means there is steam left in this rally and we are ready for few better trades with the information of the day steeped into the market grain

It looks as if the Rupee is using every lull to express its desire to move to higher remuneration for exporters and higher costs indicating the weakness that remains in Fiscal and Monetary policy to be largely a figment of overworked minds balanced by very immature, "bold" buying of Dollars on the other side that thrives on "relentless" under performing and ill focussed among a few adjectives for the Capital Markets probably from the shallowness of the Aisan Basket and its disassociation for the Rupee that never "antsied" to make it. 

LICHSGFIN and COALINDIA are STRONG BUYs while JAICORP And BFUTILITIES see exits on a regular basis,. HCLTECH has not seen  a short build up during the day so the Infra and construction bulls have things to do and stocks to buy and Banks are doing fine on their continuing uptick ( indusind, ICICI, ING , YES and PNB continue to enjoy buying levels, you cannot lose on HDFCBANK, Axis bank is a bull market delight) TCS is a good long term pick. Infy has some large exits to take care of that have been calendarised probably till Diwali when Auto sales trend up. 

ITC and BLUESTAR could see amazing new levels as they have seen positive accumulation in the crazy times of the last two weeks and are poised for breakthrough results in fundamentals. Telcos seem to continue missing the grade after a good enough pull, as Autos have to come first

MINDTREE again hitting 635 levels while WIPRO has bottomed out Where's the Diesel price hike news, one asks?

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A fair question, apositive anser to which has plausible deniability. However, I ould still aver the markets are up in the short term and the momentum is lost as we unnecessarily wait on Ministers and media reports, probably because many have made it a matter of life or death tha tultimately RBI be in a position to cut rates in July itself

The US Beige Book report shades three different degrees of modest/moderath growth/recovery in the nine Fed Districts leaving nothing to the imagination of planners that has not happened with US clipped to 2% rates of groht and safe haven buys in US bonds that did try and drop off at 1.48% yields continue to the long held marks of burnt investors like Bill Gross at 1% for the 10 year bond which would be the deflation scenario for the ever growing trade destination of the United States. 

Dr Reddys is going to report lower sales despite generic Storvas sales in the US or lower profits from the expected 354 crs and fundamentally remains the big league story other pharma mid caps have not hit in a somewwhat wea k associative rejoinder to the secular IT bull run of the nineties and the first few years of this millenium. i.e. not many would survive and reach the Big leagues. But such draconian predictions are yet unruffled, undisturbed as Sales grow at an even clip and Made in USA has a mile to go before it reaches the high cost US healthcare industry

Heromoto and Bajaj are great picks and MAruti will follow soon after another hiccup at the Manesar plants with the unions hits the scrip. The scrip is already trading at very attractive levels and MAruti  is moving to alternate facilities in NaMo territory. M&M continues to be a SHORT

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A simple day to begin trading it seems also offers more choices in buying ITC and HUL but that would be the fe scrips bucking the trend today so watch out. ITC should catch early on nes of buoyant HUL results if AMJ has been good. 

Techs are moving up for example and the Universal languageof a HCL Tech Short has lost meanign today which is probably not a good sign and we might retur to choppiness sooner, Rupee holding higher levels but don from the afternoon's pessimism of yesterday

ICICIBANK marches on to a 1000 price barrier where it has a lot of upside still left as banks lead the turnaround Economy by the nose having loaded restructurings in time, certainly a vote of confidence for more with Economics and Finance backgrounds to lead governments and take big decisions esp as IMF loses some of its overburdened relevance in a bid to save Europe. (spillover from hte Morning report) 

Bajaj Auto and Bjaja FinServ should carry to huge targets today as Dr Reddy hits the peak of its capacities ahead of results. 

YESBANK and INDUSIND BANK will catch big if the upmove is sustained. 

Get into infra stocks, esp with BHEL and L&T getting incentives to maintain share of the Power plant construction/. equipment business

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The Dark clouds of the monsoon are not to be confused with the dark clouds over global economic performance and deficiency in rains still have to catch up.

India reforms story's failures have been enough to cause each non reform announcement day to dip on the markets and so the reform of Diesel  prices ill bring good tidings, the Rupee Dollar gains multiplying sensex index gains as speculators on the Currency sync up to probably even neer 54.5 levels for the Rupee is the momentum can be sustained. Equities will finally be out of their nervous nineties and move up but then Policy panacea was never the dream of the markets who realistically relied just on  India growth so the bordering maniacal tendency to live on the edge for news from North Block has been a dampener for the market's targets and as I have suggested earlier, if food inflation is your reason for stopping growth then there is absolutely no out for this situation of Indian Business

The Daily Advance Decline ratios will be bordering on nearly 4:1 today as Asia finally rises to the occassiona nd the Dollar starts the day down with the Straits of Hormuz story clouding economic action of any other kind for the Dollar. SAfe haven flows to the dollar amounted to a massive $100 B in June 

Power reforms will be the toughest act to follow and the consumer growth story hard to comprehend but that is the immediate 'in' still carrying underpriced businesses by the score ( 20 opposed to a dozen of 12 in most other emerging markets) while Banks have been dealing a golden hand around and are likely to win big in the ensuing redenomination

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Though India's inflation internals are blurry on core inflation and inflation reporting never a direct look see into RBI policy, the finality of a large CPI hit was avoided as the CPI data for the month of June tracked the dip in WPI ( albeit strangely having missed the correlation in the other three reports of the new series) to 10.02% F&B Inflation is a higher 10.71% reflecting price changes yet avoiding becoming a flashpoint or a standing matter of concern for Policy with urban F&B inflation at nearly 12%, Animal proteins par for the course at 11.65% and Dals settling down at 9.35%

It seems the new series has a larger housing group weight in the urban sub index(DNA) and so CPI trended down. The WPI walk earlier was a result of drop in the "core" inflation number run by basic , intermediate and consumer goods in manufacturing pdts

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